Risky Shift

In decisions involving risk, a tendency for involvement or participation in a group to cause the individual opinions of the group members to change in the direction of greater risk, causing group decisions to be generally riskier than the average of the individual decisions of the participating group members. It was discovered independently in 1957 by the US psychologist Robert Charles Ziller (born 1924) and in 1961 by a US graduate student James (Arthur Finch) Stoner (born 1935), who used quite different methods and who both expected the opposite effect. The finding has been replicated many times and holds true for most decisions involving risk, although dilemmas have been found that reliably produce cautious shifts. It is explained partly by a social comparison effect, based on a cultural tendency for people to admire riskiness rather than caution in most circumstances, as a result of which most people like to consider themselves at least as willing to take risks as their peers, but during group discussion some group members discover that others are riskier than themselves, and they therefore alter their opinions in a risky direction to restore their self-images, causing a risky shift in the group decision. A second explanatory mechanism is the persuasive argumentation effect, which arises from the same cultural tendency to admire riskiness rather than caution, causing group members to be more willing to voice pro-risk than procaution persuasive arguments during the group discussion, resulting in more persuasive arguments in a risky than a cautious direction. Social comparison and persuasive argumentation effects can also explain cautious shifts, and some authorities believe that they can also explain the more general group polarization phenomenon. Also called a choice shift.

The risky shift is a concept in social psychology.The risky shift occurs when a group collectively agrees on a course of action that is more extreme than they would have made if asked individually. The risky shift is a concept in social psychology.The risky shift occurs when a group collectively agrees on a course of action that is more extreme than they would have made if asked individually. Apr 28, 2013 Predilection for decisions made in a group setting to be less conservative, more experimental, and more dangerous than would be the decisions of individual group members by themselves. RISKY SHIFT: 'The group of kids got into trouble because of risky shift.' Risky Shift Risky shift occurs when people change their decisions or opinions to become more extreme and risky when acting as part of a group, compared with acting individually; this is one form of the phenomenon known as group polarization. America's leaders say the economy is strong and getting stronger. But the safety net that once protected us is fast unraveling. Gigabyte driver download for windows. With retirement plans in growing jeopardy while health coverage erodes, more and more economic risk is shifting from government and business onto the fragile shoulders of the American family.

Explanations > Theories > Risky Shift Phenomenon

Description

When people are in groups, they make decision about risk differently from when they are alone. In the group, they are likely to make riskier decisions, as the shared risk makes the individual risk less.

They also may not want to let their compatriots down, and hence be risk-averse (this is sometimes called cautious shift). The overall tendency towards a shift in risk perception is also sometimes called choice shift.

There are a number of reasons as to why this might happen. Theories have included:

Wallach, Kogan, and Bem (1964) proposed that greater risks are chosen due to a diffusion of responsibility, where emotional bonds decrease anxieties and risk is perceived as shared.
Collins and Guetzkow (1964) suggested that high risk-takers are more confident and hence may persuade others to take greater risks.
Brown (1965) indicates that social status in groups is often associated with risk-taking, leading people to avoid a low risk position.
Bateson (1966) suggests that as people pay attention to a possible action, they become more familiar and comfortable with it and hence perceive less risk.

Research

Risky Shift Examples

Myers and Bishop (1970) put highly prejudiced students together to discuss racial issues. They became even more prejudiced. The reverse happened with unprejudiced students, who became even more unprejudiced.

Example

Entire football teams sometime get into aggressive or defensive moods as they either throw caution to the winds trying to score or desperately try to avoid being caught out. Interwrite learning port devices driver download.

Juries given weak evidence will become very lenient after discussion, whilst when given strong evidence they are likely to give harsh judgment.

So what?

Using it

Show the other person how other people are making the same decision. Frame the risk as individually less.

Defending

Make decisions on your own. Shared risk is still the same risk.

References

Risky Shift Definition

Stoner (1961), Myers and Bishop (1970)

Wallach, Kogan, and Bem (1964), Collins and Guetzkow (1964), Brown (1965), Bateson (1966)

Risky Shift Theory

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